2024 Indonesia General Election
[객원 에디터 7기 / 이석현 기자] Indonesia is on the brink of a substantial political shift as Prabowo Subianto, a 72-year-old ex-army general, is set to secure victory in the presidential election. Previously defeated twice by current Indonesian president Joko Widodo, Prabowo is expected to bring a distinct approach to governance.
Once banned from the United States for alleged human rights violations, Prabowo has transformed his image to a moderate and collaborative leader. Yet skepticism remains about whether his temperament and military background will influence his presidency.
Official election results are expected in March, but early figures suggest a substantial lead for Prabowo that will allow him to avoid a June runoff. This follows his loss in previous elections, which resulted in deadly riots in 2019 after he contested the results.
While Prabowo served as Jokowi’s defense minister for the past five years and aligned his 2024 campaign with continuing the outgoing president’s agenda, watchers highlight their fundamental differences. Jokowi is well-known for his calm and conciliatory demeanor and prioritized economic development. In contrast, Prabowo is outspoken and confrontational and views issues through a military lens, emphasizing sovereignty and national security.
The international community is closely monitoring potential shifts in Indonesia’s foreign policy. Foreign leaders were quick to congratulate Prabowo on his apparent victory. It remains unclear how a Prabowo administration will navigate diplomatic ties with China, the United States, and Australia.
Indonesia holds strategic importance in Asia given its vast natural resources, including the world’s largest nickel reserves. Prabowo will have to maintain the country’s alliances, economic partnerships, and neutrality amid the rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.
One notable challenge Prabowo faces is his controversial past, including a ban imposed on him in 1998 over alleged human rights atrocities. While he has visited the United States as defense minister, concerns about international scrutiny persists.
Domestically, Prabowo’s presidency raises questions about his priorities. As defense minister, Prabowo emphasized military modernization, and experts speculate about how this focus might shape his policies as president. With economic growth and infrastructure being key areas during Jokowi’s tenure, Prabowo’s military-centric approach introduces an element of uncertainty.
Furthermore, concerns are raised about Prabowo’s stance on territorial issues, particularly in the South China Sea. Experts suggest that while he may not seek escalation, his military background may seem more assertive. Of particular concern is Prabowo’s position on Papua, a province with a history of tensions and human rights abuses. Advocating for a more military response, Prabowo’s approach to Papua raises fears of expanded state control and a rollback of democratic reforms.
As Prabowo’s electoral success appears imminent, Indonesia and the international community watch on with anticipation, skepticism, and concern. It will undoubtedly shape the country’s future and have far-reaching implications regionally and globally.
Sources: CNN, Japan Times, Time, Foreign Policy
