Is Mpox the next global pandemic?

[객원 에디터 8기 / 박준우 기자] With over 20,000 cases across 13 African Union member states, as well as some nations in Europe and Asia in 2024 alone, mpox has been declared a public health emergency by the World Health Organization (WHO). With reports stating that clade I of mpox has a mortality rate of 10%, there has been an outcry of concern over this disease. The question remains: is this disease serious or another endemic disease that will die down?

While the first notable outbreak of mpox was back in 2022, the virus that causes the disease was discovered in 1958 when two outbreaks of this disease occurred in monkey colonies that were kept for research. The first human case of mpox was recorded in 1970 in what is now the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Mpox is transmitted through close contact with an individual who has the disease or through air via infectious respiratory particles. In addition, the virus can be spread by contaminated objects and through bites and scratches from infected animals.

Symptoms can include rash, fever, headache, muscle aches, back pain, fatigue, and swollen lymph nodes. 

Mpox had remained mostly endemic to West Africa until 2022 when the West African clade of mpox (Clade II) spread to WHO member nations where mpox was not yet endemic, such as Australia, Belgium, and Canada. Since then, there have been 100,000 documented cases, with 2024 seeing a surge in cases that are mostly endemic to West Africa.

Senior White House officials have stated that the United States is preparing for the possible arrival of a more severe variant of mpox. This follows the first known case of clade I mpox outside of Africa just last month in Sweden. 

On the other hand, there are sources that claim that mpox may not be as easily transmissible as COVID and therefore may be less of a threat. Harvard Medical School infectious disease specialist Daniel Kuritzkes states that airborne transmission, the main transmission method of respiratory diseases like COVID-19, is very uncommon. He suggests that mpox is mainly transmitted through close person-to-person contact. This includes sexual contact, which is far easier to prevent than airborne transmission.

Furthermore, while the mortality rate for clade I mpox seems high, infectious disease researchers at the Institute of Tropical Medicine in Antwerp doubt that this figure is accurate. This is due to surveillance data only being available for the most severe cases that require hospitalization. Many people who experience milder symptoms may just stay at home and not seek care from hospitals, leading to their cases going unreported.

Researchers will need more time to investigate whether or not this virus has the potential to reach epidemic or even pandemic levels.

Sources: World Health Organization, Al Jazeera, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Harvard Medical School, NBC News, European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Nature